Episode 118: Trade Policy 3.0 – Three Scenarios for Tomorrowland with Lucian Cernat

In this episode of our Global Economy Podcast, our Director, Oscar Guinea, talks with Lucian Cernat* about the latter’s new paper, Trade Policy 3.0: Three Scenarios for Tomorrowland.

Their conversation outlines the evolution from trade policy 1.0 to 3.0 and how geopolitical tensions, resilience, and economic security shape today’s landscape. They cover the WTO’s role, lessons from COVID-19, and three future scenarios (immunity, sclerosis, and contagion), offering insights into the shifting global trade environment.

You can read a transcript of the chat here.

Read Lucian’s study here.

Lucian Cernat is the Head of Trade in Goods, Tariff Negotiations, Technical Barriers to Trade, Customs and Rules of Origin at DG TRADE in the European Commission. Previously, he held the position of Head of Global Regulatory Cooperation and International Procurement Negotiation at the European Commission. Until 2008, he held various positions at the United Nations in Geneva dealing with trade and development issues. He has authored more than 20 publications on the development impact of trade policies, WTO negotiations, EU preferential market access, regional trade agreements, competition policy, corporate governance. Prior to his UN experience, he has been a Trade Diplomat with the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and part of the negotiating team of bilateral FTAs with the EuroMed area and Baltic countries, preceding Romania’s accession to the EU. Lucian Cernat obtained a PhD from University of Manchester and a postgraduate diploma from Oxford University. He is also the author of Europeanization, Varieties of Capitalism and Economic Performance in Central and Eastern Europe (Palgrave Macmillan, 2006).

*Disclaimer: the opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the guest and do not represent an official position by the European Commission.