Adapting Under Pressure: The Global South’s Quantum Journey

by Francisco Jure, Research Assistant, ECIPE

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I have had an Argentine submarine livestream running in the background for days. Thousands of people watched as a pale-pink Dumbo octopus, one among many otherworldly creatures, appeared nearly 4,000 meters below the surface off Mar del Plata, its ear-like fins beating softly in the dark. Deprived of the usual defences of its shallow-water relatives, it survives through improbable yet effective strategies: stealth and endurance under crushing pressure. That image stayed with me while researching how countries in the Global South confront the challenges of quantum technologies. Like the deep sea, quantum reveals a hidden dimension governed by rules written in unfamiliar terrain, where resilience depends not on strength but on the capacity to adapt.

Back on the surface, many societies in the Global South are already facing a dilemma on how to promote that adaptation as they navigate an accelerating wave of emerging technologies. Artificial intelligence, biotechnology, autonomous systems, advanced materials, space technologies, and quantum are not advancing in isolation; instead, they reinforce one another, creating feedback loops that speed up cycles of innovation and disruption.

Among those technologies, quantum is perhaps the most paradigm-shifting. Its innovation cycle is not incremental but disruptive, favouring those who secure early leadership to define standards and dependencies for decades to come. For countries with fewer resources, access to scarce materials, energy, and talent will be decisive—making collaboration across like-minded nations not just strategic, but essential.

The Quantum Core and the AI Experience

Confronting these obstacles requires looking at how different governance models have already shaped the trajectory of quantum development among leading nations. The “Quantum Core” refers to the group of states leading the development of this technology, each advancing through distinct models of governance and management. The United States relies on the National Quantum Initiative to coordinate agencies and foster public–private collaboration; China pursues a centralised, state-led approach that embeds quantum within its broader industrial strategy, with universities serving state priorities; and Europe follows a hybrid model that blends supranational roadmaps like the Quantum Flagship with national initiatives, where Germany has taken the lead through its interministerial action plan. These contrasting approaches—liberal coordination, state sovereignty, and multi-level governance—have all delivered breakthroughs, from US defence applications to China’s satellites and Europe’s quantum supercomputing.

The strategic value these powers assign to quantum becomes evident when looking at their funding commitments. China leads with more than USD 15 billion in public funding, though some dispute this figure. The EU follows with about USD 10 billion in public commitments, much of it driven by Germany. The US ranks third, with roughly USD 5 billion already allocated and a further USD 2.7 billion pending under the National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act.

Beyond disparities in funding, the Global South is still struggling to define its role in the emerging quantum landscape. For most countries, quantum remains an aspirational frontier rather than an industrial reality: research is often fragmented across isolated academic groups, engagement tends to be reactive through international collaborations or niche projects, and persistent shortages of interdisciplinary talent combined with the risk of brain drain further constrain domestic capacity. Precisely because progress depends on broad and sustained collaboration, building such cooperative frameworks is not merely advantageous but indispensable for the Global South if it is to avoid being left behind.

AI has already exposed the profound difficulties that Global South countries face in adopting emerging technologies. Despite some localised initiatives, structural barriers, ranging from gaps in digital infrastructure and financing to shortages of skilled talent and fragmented policy frameworks, have slowed meaningful adoption. The problem is not only capacity. The very incentives guiding AI progress are being shaped around commercial and geopolitical priorities that rarely reflect the needs of the Global South. This creates a dual challenge: countries are not only struggling to build the foundations for adoption but also confronting a trajectory of technological development that risks deepening exclusion rather than broadening opportunity.

But even amid structural constraints, early national strategies for emerging technologies—when tailored to local ecosystems—can deliver measurable impact. Strategic policy design has already proven effective in driving AI adoption across key sectors in countries with relatively limited access to computing power and algorithmic efficiency. In Chile, for example, AI is enhancing mining efficiency and sustainability through predictive models and intelligent automation in resource extraction and clean energy operations; in Nigeria, AI-driven innovations are improving healthcare delivery and expanding access to education and multilingual communication through specialised platforms.

Navigating Quantum Frontiers in the Global South

Quantum adds an additional layer of uncertainty for countries seeking to define their policies toward emerging technologies. Unlike AI, where many models are already integrated into global markets, quantum remains at a pre-commercial stage, with many research paths still uncertain and outcomes unpredictable. Its disruptive nature means that success will not come from incremental advances but from breakthroughs that could instantly redraw the technological map. For countries in the Global South, this amplifies the stakes: without early positioning and cooperation, they risk falling behind once standards and supply chains are set by first movers. The question, then, is how these nations can insert themselves into a field defined less by gradual adoption and more by decisive leaps.

Within these challenges, some nations have begun to explore alternative models of engagement. These approaches tend to be pragmatic, adapting quantum research ambitions to the limitations posed by structural barriers and available resources. India, Brazil, and South Africa show that even with limited resources, it is possible for the Global South to carve out meaningful positions in the quantum landscape by combining pragmatism with strategic vision.

India has chosen a hub-and-startup approach to advance its quantum ambitions. Approved in 2023, the National Quantum Mission (NQM) allocates ₹6,003.65 crore (≈ USD 710 million) through 2031 and centres on four Thematic Hubs hosted by leading institutions to drive research in quantum computing, communication, sensing, and materials. The mission also seeks to foster indigenous innovation through continuous calls for startups that receive seed funding and access to scientific mentorship and academic infrastructure. Early progress is already visible: in 2025, Indian researchers achieved a one-kilometre free-space entanglement-based Quantum Key Distribution test, a milestone in ultra-secure communications that instantly reveals any interception attempt

Brazil’s quantum strategy combines deliberate, long‑term planning with public‑private collaboration: a national quantum roadmap is under development for launch by mid‑2026, oriented around ethical innovation, educational capacity‑building, regional leadership, and targeted technology areas such as sensing and software. The Rio Quântica Network has begun connecting five Rio de Janeiro research institutions via fibre-optic and laser links, backed by roughly R$6 million (≈ USD 1.1 million) in combined funding from the São Paulo Research Foundation, the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, and the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development for its initial phase of deployment and infrastructure setup. These efforts are complemented by a growing recognition of the need for interdisciplinary talent: physicists, engineers, computer scientists and mathematicians.

South Africa has also approached quantum technology through a collaborative infrastructure and skill-building rather than direct competition with the global core. In 2021, the Department of Science and Innovation launched the Quantum Technology–Driven Research and Innovation Framework, which gave rise to the South African Quantum Technologies Initiative (SA QuTI), a consortium of five universities with initial funding of ZAR 54 million (≈ USD 3 million).  In April 2025, SA QuTI entered its second phase, backed by ZAR 142 million (≈ USD 8 million) over five years to consolidate quantum efforts. Importantly, the initiative does not aim to compete in quantum hardware, but instead emphasises quantum software and communication capacities—”like making smartphone apps without having to build the phones,” as its leaders describe, reflecting a pragmatic approach aligned with national strengths and constraints.

Adaptation as a Strategy for Resilience

The lesson is clear: agency is possible, but it requires deliberate strategies and long-term commitment. As the cases of India, Brazil, and South Africa illustrate, what matters is not attempting to replicate the vast ecosystems of the quantum core, but rather identifying entry points that align with national capacities and regional opportunities.

Technology diplomacy is the first key opportunity. For countries with limited resources, forging alliances can amplify bargaining power and technology diffusion. Whether through South–South coalitions or triangular cooperation with established powers, strategic partnerships in this domain can unlock access to infrastructure and standards-setting forums. India, for example, has deepened scientific cooperation with Finland through joint initiatives in quantum computing, while with the United States, it has launched a quantum coordination mechanism to foster collaboration across academia, industry, and government. These experiences show that diplomacy, when oriented toward co-creation, can help offset asymmetries and secure a seat at the table where the rules of the quantum era are being shaped.

Niche specialisation also offers a realistic path to relevance in a crowded field. Rather than spreading scarce resources across the full quantum stack, countries can focus on segments where they hold comparative advantages, from software and secure communications to material sciences or applications tied to national priorities. Brazil’s Rio Quântica illustrates the power of clustering research institutions into hubs capable of pooling resources but also generating synergies, ensuring that investments translate into critical mass. For the Global South, such specialisation may prove the difference between being a marginal user and becoming a contributor.

Ultimately, knowledge infrastructure and sustained investment in R&D will determine whether these strategies succeed. Without deliberate policies to create and retain researchers, investments will dissipate. Long-term state commitment to research and innovation is also essential: South Africa’s SA QuTI is backed by multi‐year funding and multi-university collaboration to ensure continuity and depth. Building future capacity also means broadening the community so quantum development does not remain the domain of physicists alone.

Resilience in this context is less about steering the entire field and more about adapting creatively to its disruptions. The quantum leap will likely unfold at a pace that countries in the Global South cannot control, but they can still influence their positioning in supply chains and standards. By pooling scarce talent, connecting regional hubs, and linking with global partners, countries can compensate for resource limitations and secure a seat at the table where rules and networks are being defined. Survival, then, depends not on replicating past defences, but on evolving new strategies that channel limited capacities into areas of leverage. Like the deep-sea creatures that thrive under crushing pressure, the Global South can endure and even prosper by charting adaptive paths that convert vulnerability into positioning power.